Statehood, statelessness, and continuity in a climate-changed world : A worst-case scenario analysis
Rouleau-Dick, Michel (2023-12-08)
Rouleau-Dick, Michel
Åbo Akademi - Åbo Akademi University
08.12.2023
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The permanent address of the publication is
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-12-4328-8
https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-12-4328-8
Abstract
The impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is seriously threatening the stability of the earth’s climate. The changes are felt acutely in the oceans of the planet, and one of the key consequences is sea-level rise, the process by which the average sea levels are slowly increasing. Due to their low elevation above sea levels, Low-lying Island States (LLISs), sea level rise presents an existential threat to their very existence, despite LLISs being among the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases. The predicament of LLISs presents a novel question to international law: no state has ever risked the permanent, physical loss of its territory. The absence of clear state practice or authoritative guidance on whether a state can continue existing beyond the loss of its territory and the loss of its population has resulted in significant uncertainty.
This thesis aims to address certain elements of this uncertainty and provide context-relevant legal analyses of possible avenues for palliative solutions, in the event better solutions could not have been implemented. The thesis’ main arguments have been published in three peer-reviewed publications. The first article that constitutes this thesis examines the relevance of the principle known as the presumption of continuity. The article outlines two distinct doctrines of continuity, one of which assumes statehood to be mostly irreversible (a “ratchet”), while the other instead approaches continuity as an assessment of “sameness” of identity. The article argues that under the “sameness” doctrine, the presumption of continuity would only play a limited role in preserving the statehood of a threatened LLIS if the latter were to lose its territory. The second article investigates the possible relevance of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta (SMOM) as an alternative form of international legal personality for a deterritorialised LLIS, a means through which the latter could maintain its existence independently from statehood. The third article examines the limited and context-based relevance of the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons for the displaced nationals of LLISs.
The summary provides crucial context to the analysis contained in the three articles by framing the latter’s analyses through a scenario-based approach. Two sets of scenarios are outlined, respectively addressing a number of possible outcomes to the question of the future statehood of a deterritorialised LLIS and the avenues available for the protection of the externally displaced nationals of the LLIS in question. This framing is key, as it allows this thesis to investigate a hypothetical worst-case scenario context and context-relevant avenues for solutions while emphasizing that such an outcome should be avoided, whether through pre-emptive legal developments, or adaptation and mitigation efforts.
This thesis aims to address certain elements of this uncertainty and provide context-relevant legal analyses of possible avenues for palliative solutions, in the event better solutions could not have been implemented. The thesis’ main arguments have been published in three peer-reviewed publications. The first article that constitutes this thesis examines the relevance of the principle known as the presumption of continuity. The article outlines two distinct doctrines of continuity, one of which assumes statehood to be mostly irreversible (a “ratchet”), while the other instead approaches continuity as an assessment of “sameness” of identity. The article argues that under the “sameness” doctrine, the presumption of continuity would only play a limited role in preserving the statehood of a threatened LLIS if the latter were to lose its territory. The second article investigates the possible relevance of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta (SMOM) as an alternative form of international legal personality for a deterritorialised LLIS, a means through which the latter could maintain its existence independently from statehood. The third article examines the limited and context-based relevance of the 1954 Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons for the displaced nationals of LLISs.
The summary provides crucial context to the analysis contained in the three articles by framing the latter’s analyses through a scenario-based approach. Two sets of scenarios are outlined, respectively addressing a number of possible outcomes to the question of the future statehood of a deterritorialised LLIS and the avenues available for the protection of the externally displaced nationals of the LLIS in question. This framing is key, as it allows this thesis to investigate a hypothetical worst-case scenario context and context-relevant avenues for solutions while emphasizing that such an outcome should be avoided, whether through pre-emptive legal developments, or adaptation and mitigation efforts.
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