Have Advanced Analytics Influenced Golf Betting Odds?

Abstract

The study tries to find an answer to whether betting lines for major championships of golf are following the Strokes Gained model or The Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). The literature review focuses on how the Strokes Gained model, the Official World Golf Ranking and the betting market function and what influences those three factors. The study focuses on To Win odds of the 19 major championships played in 2018 – 2022. The method of the study was to conduct a Pearson’s correlation test between the given odds and a player’s position in the OWGR and his Strokes Gained Total and Strokes Gained Approach statistics. Afterwards a Granger Causality test was conducted for the 23 players who were ranked inside the top 75 of the OWGR throughout the studied time period. The study concludes that the player’s position in the OWGR is the strongest correlating factor with odds with some exceptions. The Granger causality test gave various answers: Most importantly that a player’s position in the OWGR can be seen as starkest Granger causer of odds when a player is ranked highly in the OWGR, whereas a lower ranked player’s odds tend to be Granger caused by his Strokes Gained metrics.