Eliittilukioiden vaikutukset yliopisto-opintojen aloittamiseen ja koulutusalan valintaan

Abstract

Lukioiden väliset erot oppimistuloksissa ja oppilaspohjassa ovat Suomessa merkittäviä ja erot korostuvat isoimmissa kaupungeissa, joissa kilpailtujen ja suosittujen lukioiden sisäänpääsyrajat ovat hyvin korkeita. Tällaisia hyvin korkean sisäänpääsyrajan lukioita kutsutaan eliittilukioiksi. Artikkelissa tutkitaan eliittilukioiden pidemmän aikavälin vaikutuksia yliopisto-opintojen aloittamiseen ja koulutusalan valintaan vertaamalla eliittilukioiden sisäänpääsyrajan juuri ylittäneitä niukasti rajan alle jääneisiin.

Finnish elite high school students enrol in university and so-called elite fields of study more often than Finnish high school students on average. However, those who attend elite high schools are also higher-achieving in terms of baseline grade point average (GPA) from comprehensive school. This selection bias must be taken into account in studying the causal effects of elite high schools.

This study focuses on five elite high schools in the Helsinki region and aims to solve the problem of selection bias by using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). In our case RDD exploits the entrance thresholds of elite high schools as a rule which assigns applicants near the threshold into treatment and control groups. By comparing the outcomes (e.g. the probability of enrolment in a university) of these groups we can estimate the causal effects of an elite high school offer on various educational outcomes, such as university enrolment.

We find that crossing the threshold of an elite high school leads to a higher-achieving peer group in terms of baseline GPA. However, the elite high school offer does not have a statistically significant effect on the probability of enrolment in a university or on the probability of enrolment in an elite field of study. The only exception is Etelä-Tapiola high school, which has a positive effect on the probability of enrolment in a university.